An Introduction to Akaikes Information Criterion (AIC)

An Introduction to Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) The Akaike Information Criterion (commonly referred to simply as AIC) is a criterion for selecting among nested statistical or  econometric models. The AIC is essentially an estimated measure of the quality of each of the available econometric models as they relate to one another for a certain set of data, making it an ideal method for model selection. Using AIC for Statistical and Econometric Model Selection The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was developed with a foundation in information theory. Information theory is a branch of applied mathematics concerning the quantification (the process of counting and measuring) of information. In using AIC to  attempt to measure the relative quality of econometric models for a given data set, AIC provides the researcher with an estimate of the information that would be lost if a particular model were to be employed to display the process that produced the data. As such, the AIC works to balance the trade-offs between the complexity of a given model and its goodness of fit, which is the statistical term to describe how well the model fits the data or set of observations. What AIC Will Not Do Because of what the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) can do with a set of statistical and econometric models and a given set of data, it is a useful tool in model selection. But even as a model selection tool, AIC has its limitations. For instance, AIC can only provide a relative test of model quality. That is to say that AIC does not and cannot provide a test of a model that results in information about the quality of the model in an absolute sense. So if each of the tested statistical models are equally unsatisfactory or ill-fit for the data, AIC would not provide any indication from the onset. AIC in Econometrics Terms The AIC is a number associated with each model: AICln (sm2) 2m/T Where m is the number of parameters in the model, and sm2  (in an AR(m) example) is the estimated residual variance: sm2 (sum of squared residuals for model m)/T. That is the average squared residual for model m. The criterion may be minimized over choices of m to form a trade-off between the fit of the model (which lowers the sum of squared residuals) and the models complexity, which is measured by m. Thus an AR(m) model versus an AR(m1) can be compared by this criterion for a given batch of data. An equivalent formulation is this one: AICT ln(RSS) 2K where K is the number of regressors, T the number of observations, and RSS the residual sum of squares; minimize over K to pick K. As such, provided a set of econometrics models, the preferred model in terms of relative quality will be the model with the minimum AIC value.

Step by Step Guide to Tracing Your Family Tree

Step by Step Guide to Tracing Your Family Tree You have a little knowledge about your family history, a few old photos and documents and a consuming curiosity. Here are some basic steps to start you on your family tree adventure! Step One: Whats Hiding in the Attic? Begin your family tree by gathering together everything you have - papers, photos, documents and family heirlooms. Rummage through your attic or basement, the filing cabinet, the back of the closet... Then check with your relatives to see if they have any family documents they are willing to share. Clues to your family history might be found on the backs of old photographs, in the family bible, or even on a postcard. If your relative is uneasy with lending an original, offer to have copies made, or take pictures or scans of the photos or documents.   Step Two: Ask Your Relatives While youre collecting family records, set aside some time to interview your relatives. Start with Mom and Dad and then move on from there. Try to collect stories, not just names and dates, and be sure to ask open-ended questions. Try these questions to get you started. Interviews may make you nervous, but this is probably the most important step in researching your family history. It may sound cliche, but dont put it off until its too late! Tip! Ask your family members if there is a genealogy book or other published records within the family. This could give you a wonderful head start!   Step Three: Start Writing Everything Down Write down everything you have learned from your family and begin to enter the information in a pedigree or family tree chart. If youre unfamiliar with these traditional family tree forms, you can find step by step instructions in filling out genealogical forms. These charts provide an at-a-glance overview of your family, making it easy to track your research progress.   Step Four: Who Do You Want to Learn About First? You cant research your entire family tree at once, so where do you want to begin? Your moms side or your dads? Select a single surname, individual, or family with which to begin and create a simple research plan. Focusing your family history search helps keep your research on track, and reduces the chance of missing important details due to sensory overload.  Ã‚   Step Five: Explore Whats Available Online Explore the Internet for information and leads on your ancestors. Good places to start include pedigree databases, message boards, and resources specific to your ancestors location. If youre new to using the Internet for genealogy research, start with Six Strategies for Finding Your Roots Online. Not sure where to start first? Then follow the research plan in 10 steps for finding your family tree online. Just dont expect to find your entire family tree in one place!   Step Six: Familiarize Yourself with Available Records Learn about the wide variety of record types that may be able to help you in your search for your ancestors including  wills;  birth,  marriage,  and  death records;  land deeds;  immigration records; military records; etc. The Family History Library Catalog, the FamilySearch Wiki, and other online finding aids can be helpful in determining what records might be available for a particular locality.   Step Seven: Utilize the Worlds Largest Genealogy Library Visit your local Family History Center  or the Family History Library in Salt Lake City, where you can access the worlds largest collection of genealogical information. If you cant get to one in person, the library has digitized millions of its records and made them available online for free through its free FamilySearch website.   Step Eight: Organize and Document Your New Information As you learn new information about your relatives, write it down! Take notes, make photocopies, and take photographs, and then create a system (either paper or digital) for saving and documenting everything you find. Keep a research log of what youve searched and what you have found (or not found) as you go. Step Nine: Go Local! You can conduct a great deal of research remotely, but at some point, you will want to visit the place where your ancestors lived. Take a trip to the cemetery where your ancestor is buried, the church he attended, and the local courthouse to explore records left behind during his time in the community. Consider a visit to the state archives as well, as they are likely to also hold historical records from the community. Step Ten: Repeat as Necessary When you have researched that particular ancestor as far as you can go, or find yourself getting frustrated, step back and take a break. Remember, this is supposed to be fun! Once youre ready for more adventure, go back to Step #4 and choose a new ancestor to start searching for!

Case Writeup Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Case Writeup - Essay Example Kiva’s existing business model does not allow lenders to receive interest against the funds they loan however; Kiva’s field partners charge the interest from the entrepreneurs. Though this rate is lower however, it is considered as enough to meet the requirements of the Kiva’s field partners. One group which obviously be affected by this will be the poor entrepreneurs because if start paying the interest to its lenders, this cost will certainly be passed on to the actual borrowers. Secondly, by not paying the interest, Kiva’s lenders are being affected though most of its lenders lend the money to gain the emotional returns rather than the financial returns. The situation described above therefore indicate towards the adaptation of a business model which can effectively combine both the elements together in order to create value for each of the stakeholders in terms of financial rewards. A closer analysis of the facts would suggest that Kiva is facing two important problems i.e. strategic as well as of operational nature. It is Strategic in the sense that paying interest rates to the lenders may dilute its overall appeal and can significantly reduce its overall public image. Further, it also need to maintain its operational viability therefore in order to attract more funds, it may require paying interest to the lenders. Apart from this, a change in the business model of the firm would also force it to change its very character therefore may further require it to complete important legal requirements in order to comply with the existing legal requirements for the commercial organizations. Apart from this since the lenders of Kiva may not be directly into the business of lending therefore they may also be subject to the different regulatory requirements which can effectively discourage them to lend to Kiva owing to

Humanitarian Military Action Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Humanitarian Military Action - Essay Example The purpose of this paper is to explore why humanitarian military action is controversial in the eyes of some, and how humanitarian military action can be useful in some situations. Using this as a basis, it will then explore the situations in which humanitarian military action has been successful and what conditions link these occasions. The same process will be completed for the failures, to provide a full overview of humanitarian military action and how best to judge whether it is the right choice in a certain situation. When Humanitarian Military Action is Accepted Many feel that there are situations where military action in the pursuit of protecting human rights is necessary. If, for example, a powerful regime is violating human rights of the citizen or resident, then many feel a more powerful or enlightened government should approve military action for the protection of these people. Humanitarian military action is also often approved with the aim of installing democracy in a c ountry where it has not previously been the primary political system, with the attempt of improving the lifestyle, conditions and rights of the residents. It can also be to protect neighbouring countries or political forces who may be at danger without such intervention1. The central dogma of humanitarian intervention is that it is protective and so any attempts for military action without this cannot be classified as humanitarian. Evidently, this definition is broad enough that humanitarian intervention may be viable in the eyes of some, whilst not in others, and this is amongst the reasons why it can be unsuccessful. Why Humanitarian Military Action is Controversial Humanitarian military action is considered useful in many situations, but it is not without controversy. Many feel that it is an oxymoron, as military action will undermine the living conditions and lifestyle of those in combat and those surrounded by the action2. In this case, the military action can perhaps be percei ved as going against the values of humanitarianism. In some cases, military action may provoke a civil uprising or the instillation of a new political regime that violates human rights more than the previous, which can again cause the action to be considered futile and damaging. There are also those who believe that geographical areas should be left to their own devices to evolve into the political system that is right for them3. In fact, proponents of this position often believe that democracy is not necessarily right for every country, and that forcing it upon citizens is a violation of human rights itself. One main reason why humanitarian intervention has become more likely in recent decades is that political and technological developments have allowed many events to be judged on a world stage and to found a modern international system. Politics has to carefully consider other nations. Despite this development, many feel that it is appropriate for each sovereign state to have imm unity against intervention despite any atrocities carried out by any governmental system in place there4. It can also be suggested that the reigning regime in these opponents feel that they are correct in their views but do not feel the need to perform military intervention on the Western world. Either way, this ability and right to rule alone as is seen fit by ruling governments is seen as both part of the international stage and an anathema to it. The Conditions for Success or Failure of Humanitarian Mili

Mentoring and Assessing Personal Statement Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Mentoring and Assessing - Personal Statement Example This reflective exercise will throw light on the intricate complexities of my profession, the demanding ethical implications of my job, and the rigorous requirement of my fitness for standards (NMC, Standards 02.04). This is a written account of it so it may invoke a critical appraisal of my own actions, and as expected will open vistas for self-analysis and experiential self-learning. This would enrich my skill of mentoring by development of knowledge, its transmission, and its use in practice setting (NMC 2004b). Throughout this account, I shall use Gibbs (1988) cyclical model of reflection. Reflection offers a subjective and contextual view of the world through my views. In the Gibbs cycle of reflection, every action will invoke a thought or feeling, so I would be able to evaluate those experiences and critically analyze them to make sense of it (Spalding, 1998). A careful analysis would aid a conclusion by consideration of all the alternatives of a happening scenario, so an action plan can be developed for future incidents in the practice. Evidently, this is a cyclical process of thoughts affecting our actions on a given situation where I can make sense of it. This would provide me with evidence as to how effective my actions were, thus creating a learning opportunity for me, and at the end of the cycle I would have new knowledge about the changed perspectives through the critical analysis (Fish and Twinn, 1997). Rationale NMC has well-conceived standards to support learning and assessment in practice. As per these standards, these learning and assessment processes, although designed to train the new entrants, applying the principles of learning theory, have important outcomes for mentors, practice teachers, and teachers (Nursing and Midwifery Council, 2004). This usually assumes the form of a developmental framework, and the development occurs in stages. The whole process of this developmental and assessment framework is required to be supported and assessed by mentors. The midwifery mentors who have additionally qualified to be sign-off mentors as part of their mentorship qualification programme would make the final assessment of practice, and after the assessment, if the registrant qualifies the NMC standards, they would be recommended to be registered (Nursing and Midwifery Council, 2004). To be able to do this, NMC has further designed the framework in such a way that if the outcomes are met withi n the rigorous provisions of accountability, the registrant nurses will be qualified to be registered. The domains in this framework are establishing effective working relationship, facilitation of learning, assessment with rigorous accountability, evaluation of learning, more importantly creating an environment of learning, establishing context of practice, promoting evidence-based practice, and inducing leadership. This framework will be suited for working in the modern healthcare, and there would be a perspective of inter-professional learning (Nursing and Midwifery Council, 2006). Furthermore, this has a close correlation with the career pathways of the nurses due to the fact that NHS has launched KFC scheme as indicators of terms and conditions of service for their

Strategic Management Industry Structures And Dynamics Business Strategy Essay

Strategic Management Industry Structures And Dynamics Business Strategy Essay Introduction: Dell Company was founded in 1984 by Michael Dell. It is the worlds largest direct-sale computer vendor; Dell Inc. is now also the leading seller of computer systems in the world, capturing a global market share of more than 15 percent. Dell markets desktop personal computers, notebook computers, network servers, workstations, handheld computers, monitors, printers, high-end storage products, and a variety of computer peripherals and software. In this part I will use Porters Five Forces to analysis Dells great success in the industry. Force 1: The Degree of Rivalry. The PC industry consists of a number of companies; hence the threat from industry competitors is high. Due to the product being highly standardized and shifting costs between brands is low, there is fierce competition which leads to lower margins and profitability in the market. The PC industry can be described as a high competitive industry. For Dell the main competitors are IBM, Apple, HP, TOSHIBA, Gateway etc. Dell uses several strategies to reduce the competitive rivalry between existing players. Firstly Dell differentiated its sales from other competitors. Dell used the direct sales strategy since 1984. To sell PCs directly to consumers, by passing retail stores and system integrators and offering limited customer support but dramatically lower prices. For years, that direct, low-cost sales model worked perfectly. It allowed Dell to make high margins while selling computer gear for less than its rivals. As a result, it now holds a leading 17.9% share of the world PC market and has grown much faster than competitors Hewlett-Packard and IBM. With thousands of phone and fax orders daily, $5 million in daily Internet sales, and daily contacts between the field sales force and customers of all types, the company kept its finger on the market pulse, quickly detecting shifts in sales trends and getting prompt feedback on any problems with its products. If the company got more than a few similar complaints, the information was relayed immediately to design engineers. When design flaws or components defects were found, the factory was notified and the problem corrected within a matter of days. Management believed Dells ability to respond quickly gave it a significant advantage over rivals, particularly over PC makers in Asia, which made large production runs and sold standardized products through retail channels. Dell saw its direct sales approach as a totally customer-driven system that allowed quick transitions to new generations of components and PC models. i Secondly Dell provided good customer service to compete with its rivals. In 1986 the company began providing a guarantee of free on-site service for a year with most of its PCs after users complained about having to ship their PCs back to Austin for repairs. Dell contracted with local service providers to handle customer requests for repairs; on-site service was provided on a next-day basis. Dell also provided its customers with technical support via a toll-free number, fax, and e-mail. Dell received close to 40,000 e-mail messages monthly requesting service and support and had 25 technicians to process the requests. iiBundled service policies were a major selling point for winning corporate accounts. If a customer preferred to work with his or her own service provider, Dell gave that provider the training and spare parts needed to service the customers equipment. Force 2: The Threat of new Entry. Firstly, Dell created a brand image to reduce the threat of new entries by advertising. Dell was the first computer company to use comparative ads. Its advertisements have appeared in several types of media including television, the Internet, magazines, catalogs and newspapers. Secondly, Dell cuts its price or offering free bonus products in the effect to maintain its market share. In 2006, Dell cut its price in an effort to maintain its 19.2% market share. However, this also cut profit-margins by more than half, from 8.7 to 4.3 percent. To maintain the strategy Dell continuing to accept the online and telephone purchase. The brand loyalty and the low price built up a barrier of entry for the new companies. Force 3: The Threat of Substitutes. Other devices like PDA, handheld electronics etc. are now coming out with features similar to PCs. The mobilebility is the key factor of the competition. Dell generate a smaller size laptop called mini which only has a 10.1 inch screen and only sells at the price under  £200 which is even lower than some of the handheld electronics. With the efficiency of mobile and the same function, for example Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, Dell protects its market share against those substitutes. Force 4: Bargaining Power of Customers. Dell built up its brand loyalty to reduce the bargaining power of customers. First, Dell had its own system and strategy to manage the relationship with customers. Since Dell use the direct sale strategy, customers can buy Dells products from the website or ordered by phone or fax. The customers then can personalize their computer by choosing the configuration of the computer (e.g. RAM, processors, and hard-disk capacity). On the Dells website from which people can directly choose, buy and give feedback, it divided the customers into four major groups home users, small medium business, public sector and large enterprise. Dell then treats different groups differently by offering the special service they need from different groups. For instance, Dell provides special solutions and services for higher education. Such as data consolidation and management, HPC (high performance computing environments), wireless solution, connected classroom etc. Because of its direct sale strategy, Dell can easily track the service for any individual buyers. All the buyer information will be stored in its system; dell can differentiate customers and send relevant product information and services to different customers. These special strategies in selling upgrade its brand image among customers. Second, Dell uses the advertisements to help building up its brand image. On the website, TV, newspaper, high street, people can easily find dells advertising. Those can not only increase dells market activity but also increase its brand pride. Force 5: Reducing the Bargaining Power of Suppliers. Dell has a special understanding on the SCM (supply chain management). Dells strategy is to limit the amount of supplier but pick up some outstanding supplier all over the world. Each supplier has a very close relationship with Dell in long-term. Dell uses its huge globe market to share its business with its entire suppliers. For instance, Dell built a assemble factory in Malaysia, its supplier from Ireland soon built a factory in there as well in order to gain a geographic efficiency. Dell had its assemble factories all over the world which relatively close to its suppliers. This will save a lot of transport costs. The double-win strategy makes the supply chain works well. With the double-win strategy and constant relationship, Dell will be able to ask lower price from the suppliers and reduce the bargaining power from them. Market part: Segmentation Introduction: Michael Dell emphasized the significant status of customers to the companys business by stating Finding ways to get close to your customers is critical to your success. Since different people would have different need from the computer, Dell divided its customers into several segments by discovering special needs from each segment. In the year 1994, the customer group was only divided by two primary customer and normal customer. In that year the assets of Dell is 3.5billion USD. In July 1996 Dell launched its online website www.dell.com. On the website primary client are divided into three segments which are large company, medium company and government education. Customers can easily choose and buy the products directly with advices and helps from dell.com. The assets of Dell rocketed up to 7.8 billion USD in that year. However in 1997, Dell continued differentiating its customer for more segments. Government education segment was divided to State Local Government, Federal Government and education. Small company and home users were also been created as individual segments. The net revenue of Dell was 12 billion in that year. On todays Dells website, people will be able to follow the tips and choose a suitable computer in few minutes. Whats more, customers can personalize their chosen computer by changing the configuration of the computer (e.g. color, RAM, processors, and hard-disk capacity). With this direct sale through different segments, Dell can start to assemble the computer once the transaction has been made. The inventory can then be limited as low as zero. Not like Dells competitors, Dell does not need many warehouses all over the world which will save a lot of costs for the company. Although on todays Dell.com, customers are divided into a lot segments. However, literally customers are differentiated into two segments; Relationship customers in opposing Transaction customers. Although Dell intends to build and maintain a good relationship with all customers, it also becomes clear, that the company would regard some customers more relationship worthy than others, by analyzing customer value. The relationship customers are mainly large enterprise and government etc. which occupied 40% of Dells entire customer. Transaction customers are small business and home users which have percentage of 30 among customers. The remaining 30 percentage customer is regarded as a mixed customer. The advantage for dividing customers in different segment is that the company would be able to analysis how it can encourage the customers to buy its product. For individual users or small business price is the priority. Those customers are regarded as more price insensitive. So for home and small business users the price is slightly lower than its competitors e.g. HP, Toshiba and Sony. For bigger customers such as the government or enterprise, they consider more than the price but consequent services and supports. Take large enterprise for instance, Dell supports a lots of specific services and solutions for running the business. Like Infrastructure Consulting service which is basically a plan for simplifying IT infrastructure, helping reduce operating costs while freeing up resources for new business initiatives.iii Also, Dell runs a program called Dell business Creditiv. This is the same as a loan offered by Dell, but with no interest rate and anytime to pay off the balance. Business without enough cash flow would like to take that program. One of the Dells competitors is IBM, it has a clearly customer segmentation but different from Dell. IBM is more focusing on Business and Industry market. In a simply word it is even more focusing on the Big customers. Similar as Dell did for big client, but even did more specific for the segmentation. For Dell there is no segment for industries like Aerospace, Chemicals and petroleum. More segmentation on large customers also brings more services and solutions for all kinds of industries. One of IBMs famous solutions is offering the security management for Wimbledonv. It provided the security solution for players, staff, media and spectators around the world. Conclusion: Dells market share was No.2 in 2009, IBM was far behind. But since Dells customer groups is much bigger than IBMs. In 2006 IBM sold its PC department to Lenovo, Lenovo used IBMs brand to product and sell IBMs ThinkPad series. It is very difficult to compare which segmentation is better. But for the large business users, IBM is a very strong competitor against Dell, Its high performance computer and advanced technical solutions and services makes IBM the biggest company for larger business and industries. i scribd.com Dell operation ii McGraw Hill Dell Computer Corporation mhhe.com/business/management/thompson/11e/case/dell5.html iii Dell.com Large Enterprise service iv Dell.com business credit v IBM.com Wimbledon case study

Comparing Fuentes’ Aura and Ligotti’s The Last Feast of Harlequin Essay

Mythological and Archetypal Reading of Fuentes’ Aura and Ligotti’s The Last Feast of Harlequin  Ã‚   Mythological and archetypal techniques coupled with the interpretation of symbolism found within a piece of literature tells the reader something about the mind and character of a people or culture. Not only does it allow you to delve deeper into this collective mind and speculate about the meaning of a particular work, it can give you something more. I believe that by using these techniques you also get a better glimpse into the main character’s state of mind. It also gives you clues as to is going on ‘behind the scenes’ that will affect the character’s mental state. The texts I chose for this essay are Fuentes’ Aura and Thomas Ligotti’s The Last Feast of Harlequin. Both are dark tales that are full of symbolism. Interpreting some of this symbolism may tell us why the main character acts the way he does and what his mental state is throughout the story. The main characters in both stories are similar. Both are young men who are well educated, with one who attended Harvard and the other who attended the Sorbonne in Paris. The two men are both teachers, each working on his own ‘life’s work’. Interestingly enough, neither story mentions any close family or friends the main characters might have. Fuentes’ Aura is definitely a strange story. It is hypnotic; it draws you in with its slow, seductive style. That is how I would describe this twisted love story that ends very surprisingly. Within this story there is symbolism that helps the reader to understand it better. First, we will explore some of the symbolism that could show us there was an effect on Felipe’s mental state. Darkness abounded in Senora Consuelo’s ... ...things. This approach also gives you an insight into the character’s mind and possibly answers the question of why would they do something that no other sane person would do. In Aura, some of the symbolism found throughout the story suggested that Felipe was not thinking clearly. Surely anyone else would have just left after encountering that woman and her house. In the other story, the main character’s dark side was leading him to do things he or any other outsider might not have done otherwise. Using this approach gives the reader little clues as to what might happen in the story, insight into the main character’s mental state, and a greater understanding of the story as a whole. Works Cited Fuentes, Carlos. Aura. Trans. Lysander Kemp. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1981. Ligotti, Thomas. The Last Feast of Harlequin. The Voice of the Damned 1990.